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The Problem with Dog Food: Why Low Carb Dog Food is the Future

Your dog is fat.

I can say this and be right more than half of the time - 59% of American pooches are overweight.

And get this - being severely overweight (double the ideal weight) has the same adverse effects on life expectancy as smoking cigarettes.

And before we jump to mass-prescribing doggie ozempic, let’s examine a startup that’s treating the problem at the source.

Most traditional dog food brands, especially kibble, are packed with carbohydrates - something that dogs never consumed in the wild. It’s long been understood that high-carb diets contribute to human obesity and diabetes, but we’ve been slow to recognize the same risks for our pets.

Carbohydrates cause blood sugar and insulin levels in dogs to spike, leading to long-term health issues such as obesity, diabetes, and even heart disease.

I talked to Daniel Schulof, the founder of KetoNatural - am ultra-low carb, high-protein kibble brand. He spent four years researching & writing a book that outlined how most dog food is packed with carbs and is harming our pets.

Dan’s got the tenacity of a spiteful ex - rather than letting it go, he published his exposé of the industry, is leading a $2B lawsuit against the worst offenders, and started a healthy kibble brand to challenge the legacy companies.

Yeah, no shot he gives them their sweatshirt back.

KetoNatural has just 5% carbs in its recipe, that’s 9x less than large brands like Pedigree. Even ‘premium’ brands like The Farmer’s Dog have high levels of carbohydrates (28-38%).

On KetoNatural’s website, they have a carb comparison tool where you can see the difference between their recipe and other dog food brands.

Carbo-Loaded Kibble Fueled By Lax Regulation

For decades, human food labels have provided detailed nutritional information, allowing us to monitor our carb intake. However, dog food labels are not held to the same standards.

The primary reason? Regulation - or the lack thereof. 

In the U.S., dog food labeling falls under the jurisdiction of an organization called AAFCO (Association of American Feed Control Officials). But the regulations around what dog food companies are required to disclose are surprisingly lax.

The Guaranteed Minimum Analysis: A Major Problem

Dog food labels feature something called the "Guaranteed Minimum Analysis" (GMA). Unlike human food labels, which list exact quantities of nutrients, the GMA only reports the minimum amount one can expect in the kibble, of just four nutrients - protein, fat, fiber, and moisture.

As a pet owner, you probably want to ensure that your dog is consuming the right balance of nutrients. But when the label says your dog’s food contains "at least" 5 grams of fat, that’s not helpful information.

I want to make sure they’re not over-consuming harmful ingredients, the minimum doesn’t really tell me anything in that regard.

The reality is, the GMA system doesn’t give you enough information to make an informed choice about your dog's diet.

This lack of transparency creates a dangerous loophole for major dog food brands, allowing them to load their products with carbohydrates. Not just because of how they approach the amount of nutrients in the recipe - they flat-out don’t include carbs in the ingredients panel.

Why would dog food brands pack their recipes with carbs? Because it’s far cheaper (~10x) to use carbs than high-quality meat protein.

AAFCO: Bought Out by Big Brands?

Dan believes that one of the main reasons for the lack of regulation is that AAFCO is essentially “bought out” by the major dog food brands. With the power of the industry behind them, these companies can influence the standards that govern pet food labeling. Dan wasn’t shy about pointing the finger at corporate interests that keep regulation weak and transparency limited.

However, things are starting to change. Thanks to pressure from advocates like Dan and others, AAFCO has recently agreed to update its labeling requirements. Starting in 2030, dog food brands will be required to report carbohydrate content on their labels.

Why wait until 2030 though?

AAFCO reasoned that brands would need time to update their labelling, which makes sense, but 5 years???

Dan noted that even a small operation like KetoNatural could implement these changes in a matter of months, not years. The 2030 timeline reflects a system that, according to Dan, doesn’t actually want to progress in terms of transparency or health standards for pets.

Despite the long wait, Dan remains optimistic. Enforcement is done on a state-by-state level, and once one state gets its act together, the rest will likely follow. This means that KetoNatural may not have to wait all the way until 2030 for the transition to take place.

Once the new regulations do go into effect, the market for low-carb dog food will skyrocket, and legacy kibble brands will struggle to compete with brands like KetoNatural that have been built around higher-quality, protein-based ingredients from the start (you can’t reformulate your kibble to be 5x more expensive if your business isn’t built to support that).

The Humanization of Pets: A Trend to Capitalize On

While the changes in regulation will certainly provide a boost for KetoNatural, Dan is also capitalizing on a growing trend - the humanization of pets. More and more, people are treating their dogs like family members, buying them high-end toys, outfits, and even booking photoshoots. And, of course, they’re also investing in better food.

In fact, there was recently a ruling in Brooklyn, New York, where a judge declared that dogs should be legally considered members of the family. This cultural shift has led to an increased demand for premium products—especially when it comes to food.

Dan and KetoNatural are betting that this trend will continue to grow. People are willing to spend more on their pets' health, and as more dog owners understand the risks associated with high-carb diets, they’ll turn to healthier options like KetoNatural.

KetoNatural’s Unique Approach to Growth

Unlike many startups that try to scale rapidly, Dan’s approach is more deliberate.

Instead of pouring gasoline on growth at an unsustainable pace, Dan plans to grow the business slowly, maintaining breakeven profitability for the next two years.

KetoNatural reeled in $2.7M in 2024 revenue and improved profitability from 2023, tightening the loss on net income from (-$1.2M) → (-$345K).

For 2025, sales are expected to come in at roughly the same as Dan pulls back on advertising - I don’t love that the business requires advertising to grow, but it’s better than burning money for the sake of growth. But it does make sense to hold tight on rampant growth while you wait for regulatory windfalls to take shape.

At this time, KetoNatural is almost exclusively sold online through their website, Amazon, and Chewy.

Dan’s gearing up for a major retail push in 2027, which will help the brand expand its footprint in brick-and-mortar stores. But not only that - a retail footprint will help the brand grow organically and kick off a new growth engine.

Dan has already run trials with retail stores, and the results are promising. About 30% of the shops he’s visited with have agreed to carry KetoNatural products, demonstrating strong potential for expansion.

Here’s what I like about this opportunity…

• According to two peer-reviewed studies (here and here), there is scientific proof that low carb, high protein diets are better for dogs than prescription-level diets (Hill's Pet Nutrition "Metabolic"). Dogs on KetoNatural diets saw 60% lower blood sugar, experienced increased energy levels, and burned more calories & fat

• Dan has clear subject expertise and his word carries authority in the space. He’s sharp & persuasive, and has a lot of great sound bites from talking to him (all things that are important for changing the narrative around dog food)

• KetoNatural is pursuing a sustainable business model, not reckless growth

• Able to trim the company’s loss by nearly $1M in just one year

• Low-Carb/High Protein taps into dietary trends and fits in well with the humanization of dogs trend

• KetoNatural could double the amount of carbs in their kibble and still be one of the best options on the market. This gives them room to cut their costs if needed and still be considered a low-carb kibble.

• $2.7M in sales of dog food isn’t a small feat, so they’ve already proven there’s demand and that customers are willing to pay a premium.

Here’s are the concerns I have with KetoNatural….

• Growth appears to be overly reliant on advertising, I’d like to see the company explore ways to drive growth organically

• There is going to be an inflection point (labelling regulation requirements), but these may not factor in until 2030 the latest - that’s a far ways away from today.

• KetoNatural is going up against an industry with extremely deep pockets - it’s an uphill battle to change perception when big corporations can pour millions into advertising

Conclusion: The Future of Dog Food Is Low-Carb

As the demand for healthier dog food options grows, it’s clear that low-carb dog food will become the new standard for many paw-rents (sorry).

Companies like KetoNatural are leading the charge, providing a healthier alternative to the carb-laden kibble that has dominated the market for decades. With new regulations on the horizon and a cultural shift toward treating pets like family, the future looks bright for brands committed to improving the health of our dogs.

The question will be, do investors have the patience for the large regulatory tailwinds that are coming by 2030? Or will the states begin enforcement earlier than that and we see a major boost earlier than expected?

KetoNatural is raising funds at a $15M valuation (on the lowest tier of their reward scheme), if you’d like to check out their full details you can do so here!

They’ve also got a campaign video if that’s more your speed.

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